Somalia: Confidential Brief - Scenarios open for President Farmaajo following the political infighting crippling his administration

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Somalia: Confidential Brief - Scenarios open for President Farmaajo following the political infighting crippling his administration

Scenario 1: Farmaajo and his PM agree with Speaker Jawaari to follow the Rules and Procedures of the House of the People (HoP) and allow for a secret ballot on the motion of no confidence against Jawaari. Farmaajo and his PM need 184 votes to oust Ja

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Scenario 1: Farmaajo and his PM agree with Speaker Jawaari to follow the Rules and Procedures of the House of the People (HoP) and allow for a secret ballot on the motion of no confidence against Jawaari. Farmaajo and his PM need 184 votes to oust Jawaari, irrespective of how many MPs show up.

Consequence: should they not muster the 184 votes, PM will almost certainly be ousted in a counter motion. Farmaajo's clout will be significantly curtailed, and Jawaari will become the de facto leader of the country

Scenario 2: Farmaajo seeks negotiated settlement with Jawaari. Motion is declared over, and a new 'national unity government' is formed.

Consequence: Farmaajo saves face, Jawaari wins the battle, PM loses the war and is likely to resign

Scenario 3: Return to the brink

Two sides fail to reach an agreement. They take the fight back to the HoP, likely causing fist fighting.

Consequence: violence is possible. Legitimacy of Farmaajo's administration is erodes, leading to widespread uncertainty for Somalia.

In a nutshell, Farmaajo has bad and worse options. He exposed himself to this situation by his aloofness and indifference.

Source: International Community - delegates who meet Farmaajo