Background on Ethiopia’s protests and political reforms over the past three years

Since 2015, the country’s two largest ethnic groups have been protesting their political marginalization, rights violations and economic injustices. More recently, Ethiopians have been protesting against repressive treatment of the media and civil society, as embodied in Ethiopia’s anti-terrorism laws. All this boiled over in mass protests earlier this year as citizens chanted for the release of political prisoners and voiced concerns over deteriorating ethnic relations.

Many criticized Ethiopia’s ethnic federal arrangement, which divides the nation into regions governed by particular ethnic groups – although the Tigrayan minority has run national politics, as I explained here at TMC in February, dominating the ruling coalition EPRDF. Since protests began in 2015, Human Rights Watch reports, security forces have killed hundreds; in 2017, the Ethiopian government admitted that hundreds had been killed. Hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians have been internally displaced. Ethnic violence and local evictions of ethnic groups from regions governed by different groups are covered regularly by the daily news.

This year, on January 3, the governing ERPDF regime finally acceded to protesters’ demands. Under former prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn, EPRDF announced political reforms that included releasing thousands of political prisoners. But on February 15, Desalegn announced his resignation – followed by jockeying within EPRDF over who would replace him.

Until now, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front – representing the minority ethnic group that helped end an earlier civil war – has effectively dominated EPRDF, making other parties within the coalition less relevant. But Oromo Peoples Democratic Organization (OPDO) and Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), two of four parties that make up the ruling coalition, had been pushing for changes. The two parties won the coalition’s chairmanship for Abiy Ahmed, who chairs OPDO, effectively making him the new prime minister as of April 2. His election is now viewed as the end of the TPLF’s dominance of EPRDF — and therefore of the country.

Despite being part of the establishment, Ahmed had been pushing for a new political direction. In his inaugural speech, Ahmed called for reconciliation and apologized that peaceful protestors had been killed.

Reforms have been speedy, which may have upset EPRDF’s old guard

Since taking charge, Ahmed has freed most of Ethiopia’s remaining political prisoners. He has attempted to reform the security sector, which remains controlled by the TPLF. Ahmed forced out long-serving EPRDF elites, and enabled young public servants and technocrats to rise into key posts within his administration. In an attempt to improve relations between the government and the people, Ahmed has also traveled throughout the country, listening to grievances.

As a longtime critic of the practice of evicting ethnic groups from different parts of the country, Ahmed has suggested establishing a council of experts to study the federal arrangement, which is designed according to ethnic and linguistic lines. My research has shown that this federal arrangement has ensured EPRDF’s survival as an authoritarian party.

Beyond Ethiopia’s borders, Ahmed has been trying to mend relations with neighboring countries in the hopes of facilitating trade and economic integration.

The old guard aren’t happy, however. In a parliamentary session called by TPLF and its allies, parliamentarians representing the unhappy elites accused the prime minister of releasing "terrorists.” In a surprising response, Ahmed acknowledged the terrorist acts committed by the government itself – and insisted that only through coming together and forgiveness could Ethiopia move forward.

That brings us to the grenade attack

After the explosion, the prime minister addressed the nation, saying, "Those of you who planned and executed such an attack against your own people have failed yesterday, failed today and will fail tomorrow.”

Immediately after Ahmed spoke, state television announced that the government had arrested Addis Ababa’s deputy police commissioner, as well as other high officials within the federal police and intelligence services, so far charging more than 30 people related to the attacks. The U.S. government has sent FBI experts to help Ethiopian authorities investigation of the blast.

Ahmed now has the ammunition he needs to reform the security sector. Observers expect to see old guard elites purged from the governing coalition and Ahmed’s opponents driven out of the police and military institutions.

Yohannes Gedamu ( @yohanethio ) is a lecturer in political science at Georgia Gwinnett College, and is working on a book titled "Ethnic Federalism and Authoritarian Survival in Ethiopia.”